CMHC says Vancouver market no longer ‘highly vulnerable’ as price acceleration eases

Canadian Real Estate Association projects that the national average price will drop 0.6 per cent

CMHC says Vancouver market no longer ‘highly vulnerable’ as price acceleration eases

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. has lowered the vulnerability rating of Vancouver’s housing market to ”moderate,” marking the first change in three years as prices have eased.

The federal agency says in a report that “evidence of price acceleration” in Vancouver has eased to low, prompting a downrating after 12 consecutive quarters of being flagged as “highly vulnerable.”

“While home price growth over the past few years significantly outpaced levels supported by fundamentals, these imbalances have narrowed through growth in fundamentals and lower home prices in different segments of the resale market,” CMHC said in its latest Housing Market Assessment report.

The agency said a moderate degree of vulnerability remains at the national level, but imbalances between house prices and housing market fundamentals have narrowed over the past year. However, certain markets such as Toronto and Victoria are at higher risk.

Nationally, the inflation-adjusted average price decreased 5.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2019 from the same period a year earlier, the fifth-consecutive decline on a year-over-year basis, CMHC said.

READ MORE: B.C. housing sales predicted to slow, prices to fall in 2019

In the previous quarter’s report, CMHC lowered its rating for Canada’s overall housing market from to moderate from high vulnerability — where it had stood for 10 consecutive quarters — as mortgage stress tests introduced last year made it harder for homebuyers to qualify and eased price acceleration.

The Canadian Real Estate Association’s latest market forecast released in June projects that the national average price will drop 0.6 per cent by the end of this year to roughly $485,000, compared to the 4.1 per cent drop recorded in 2018.

However, the pattern is split between the eastern and western parts of the country. For example, while average prices are forecast to fall in British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan, higher prices are expected in Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes.

Dropping housing prices are a particularly welcome sight in Vancouver, which was cited in January as the second-least affordable major housing market in the world out of 91 markets by urban planning company Demographia. Vancouver came second to Hong Kong, but was less affordable than the likes of San Francisco and London, U.K.

The latest statistics from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver showed that the benchmark price of a home in Metro Vancouver dropped to $998,700 in June, the first time it fell below the $1 million mark since May 2017.

The Bank of Canada in May also said that housing prices in the key markets of Vancouver and Toronto have cooled, but imbalances in real estate markets are still an important vulnerability for the overall financial system.

CMHC’s bases its vulnerability assessment on several criteria including price acceleration, overvaluation, overbuilding, and overheating. It examines the degree of vulnerability and is intended to identify imbalances in the housing market.

Toronto, Hamilton and Victoria continue to have a high degree of vulnerability, but overheating, price acceleration and overvaluation show signs of abating in all three markets.

Edmonton, Calgary, Saskatoon, Regina and Winnipeg have moderate vulnerability, but evidence of overbuilding remains.

Ottawa, Quebec City, Halifax, St. John’s, N.L., Montreal, Moncton, N.B., all have low overall vulnerability. However, overheating persists in Montreal and Moncton while overbuilding remains in St. John’s, CMHC added.

For the second consecutive quarter, moderate evidence of overvaluation continues to be the only sign of vulnerability for Canada as a whole, said CMHC’s chief economist Bob Dugan.

“Imbalances between house prices and housing market fundamentals have narrowed with declining home prices in the resale market and a growing pool of potential first-time homebuyers,” he said in a statement. “This dynamic contributes to closing the overvaluation gap.”

Armina Ligaya, The Canadian Press

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

Alberta’s chief medical officer of health, Dr. Deena Hinshaw, announced the province surpasses one million COVID-19 tests Friday. (Photo by Chris Schwarz/Government of Alberta)
COVID-19: Central zone active cases up by 100 in last 24 hours

Most central Alberta communities under province’s enhanced measures list

Sylvan Lake RCMP, Fire Department and Victim Services will be out on Dec. 5 for the annual Charity Check-stop. File Photo
Give Sylvan Lake RCMP the bird at Charity Check-stop

Sylvan Lake RCMP will be accepting frozen turkeys for the food bank during the charity check-stop

Ecole H.J. Cody School. File Photo
Sylvan Lake high school temporarily moves to online classes

Over the weekend, H.J. Cody reported six positive cases of COVID-19

.
Alberta confirmed more than 1,500 COVID-19 cases Sunday

Central zone active cases slightly up

Kyle Charles poses for a photo in Edmonton on Friday, Nov. 20, 2020. Marvel Entertainment, the biggest comic book publisher in the world, hired the 34-year-old First Nations illustrator as one of the artists involved in Marvel Voice: Indigenous Voices #1 in August. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson
VIDEO: Indigenous illustrator of new Marvel comic hopes Aboriginal women feel inspired

Kyle Charles says Indigenous women around the world have reached out

Russ and Luanne Carl are sharing about their experiences of fighting COVID-19 this past summer.
photo submitted
Stettler couple opens up about COVID-19 battle

Luanne and Russ Carl urge others to bolster personal safety measures amidst ongoing pandemic

This 2019 photo provided by The ALS Association shows Pat Quinn. Quinn, a co-founder of the viral ice bucket challenge, died Sunday, Nov. 22, 2020, at the age of 37. (Scott Kauffman/The ALS Association via AP)
Co-founder of viral ALS Ice Bucket Challenge dies at 37

Pat Quinn was diagnosed with Lou Gehrig’s disease, also known as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, in 2013

Minister of Justice and Attorney General of Canada David Lametti speaks with the media following party caucus in Ottawa, Tuesday, January 28, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld
Exclusion of mental health as grounds for assisted death is likely temporary: Lametti

Senators also suggested the exclusion renders the bill unconstitutional

Claudio Mastronardi, Toronto branch manager at Carmichael Engineering, is photographed at the company’s offices in Mississauga, Ont., Thursday, Nov. 19, 2020. As indoor air quality becomes a major concern in places of business, HVAC companies are struggling to keep up with demand for high quality filtration systems. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young
Business is booming for HVAC companies as commercial buildings see pandemic upgrades

‘The demand right now is very high. People are putting their health and safety ahead of cost’

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speak to the media about the COVID-19 virus outside Rideau Cottage in Ottawa, Friday, Nov. 20, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld
Long-awaited federal rent subsidy program for businesses hurt by COVID-19 opens today

The new program will cover up to 65 per cent of rent or commercial mortgage interest

Traffic crosses over the Lions Gate Bridge from North Vancouver into Vancouver on July 2, 2015. Motorists would have to pay a fee to drive into downtown Vancouver under the city's plan to slow climate change but one expert warns it could pose financial hardship for some. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck
Vancouver’s climate plan ‘first 10 steps in a journey of 10,000,’ says expert

Almost 40 per cent of Vancouver’s carbon pollution comes from vehicles

Alberta has 1,910 active cases of COVID-19 as of Wednesday. Red Deer is reporting five active cases, with 108 recovered. (File photo)
After COVID-related transplant delays, 16-year-old N.S. girl gets lung transplant

‘This is the difficult time now of seeing Tahlia in ICU hooked up to 15 IVs and sedated’

Most Read