President Donald Trump speaks during a bill passage event on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, Wednesday, Dec. 20, 2017, to acknowledge the final passage of tax overhaul legislation by Congress. While they have slightly differing views on the landmark tax cuts just adopted in the U.S., and their potential effect on Canada, some of the country’s leading fiscal-policy experts agree on one thing. THE CANADIAN PRESS/AP, Evan Vucci

U.S. tax cuts: Fiscal pros weigh in on how Canada should respond

In short: Don’t expect Canada to engage in a corporate-tax-cut-war with the U.S.

While they have slightly differing views on the landmark tax cuts just adopted in the U.S., and their potential effect on Canada, some of the country’s leading fiscal-policy experts agree on one thing.

In short: Don’t expect Canada to engage in a corporate-tax-cut-war with the U.S. That’s according to three prominent fiscal experts contacted by The Canadian Press as the U.S. passed a bill that will make it cheaper to do business down south.

Kevin Page, Jack Mintz, and Kevin Milligan all agreed Canada has different policy tools to respond. And they expressed doubt the likeliest tool involves taking a chainsaw to corporate tax rates.

The University of Calgary’s Mintz believes Canada should worry about its neighbour’s tax reform; he’s expressed it in National Post pieces with titles like, “Trump’s tax tsunami is about to wallop Canadian jobs and investment.”

His view is that for several decades Canada had two business advantages: lower corporate taxes, and free trade. Now the taxes are about equal, and free trade is in jeopardy. He said Canadian businesses also face new challenges, like carbon taxes; while the U.S. eliminates regulations.

But he said Canadian policy-makers can respond with a variety of solutions. One is tax rates. Others include simplifying regulation, or designing tax policy to benefit investment, say, by steering the proceeds of carbon taxes back to businesses.

“There are a gamut of different policies,” he said in an interview.

“It’s wrong to think that a single nugget is going to solve, deal, with the issue.”

He suggests Canadians seek some clues in an annual World Bank document. In the bank’s annual Doing Business report, Canada scores high in several places — it’s No. 2 in the world for ease of starting a business.

But it points to sore spots.

Overall, Canada ranks as the 22nd-best country to run a business, sandwiched between Lithuania and Malaysia — 13 spots behind its neighbour, the U.S. It’s 57th in dealing with construction permits, and 108th in getting electricity.

Page, Canada’s first parliamentary budget officer, also doubts copycat tax cuts are coming.

“I think it is unlikely Canada will try to match U.S. tax cuts,” Page said in an email.

“Tax reform pressures will likely build in Canada over the next few years leading up to the 2019 elections but it is more likely to have a broader agenda than tax reductions , including fairness, sustainability, growth, (the) environment.”

He said corporate income taxes are one important cost of doing business — but that companies look at a variety of things: dividend, capital and payroll taxes; regulations; and production costs like wages.

He said Canada might even draw some early benefit from the U.S. tax bill. That’s because economic growth in the U.S. tends to spill into Canada. Scotiabank’s models estimate that for every percentage point of growth in the U.S., there’s a half-point growth in Canada.

Page said he expects a short-term positive impact for Canada. But he said that dissipates as the bill’s less-desirable aspects kick in — like the $1.5 trillion added to the debt, Republicans’ talk of offsetting that through social-spending cuts, growing inequality, and the diminished fiscal manoeuvring room whenever another recession hits.

He offers a term to describe the temporary boost for Canada: ”A sugar high.”

Kevin Milligan, a UBC economist who has advised the Trudeau Liberals on tax reform, said he’s not nearly as concerned about this bill as he would be if it gave U.S. businesses a permanent tax advantage of, say, five percentage points, rather than simply putting the countries at similar rates.

“Then we’d be in a world where we’d be really, perhaps, in trouble — where you’d see firms wanting … to shift profits out of Canada. The fact that we’re tied, at about the same rate, means there’s no incentive to move profit,” he said.

“That’s why I don’t have apocalyptic concerns that some others might have expressed.”

He said businesses will continue making choices based on numerous factors, like the cost of providing health insurance to employees, a significant issue in the U.S.; good transit links; pleasant communities; workforce training; and the ability to attract talented immigrants — an area where Canada has gained some advantage, he said, given the current U.S. political climate.

“So that’s the question,” Milligan said.

“Are we best off getting into a tax-rate competition with the U.S., or competing on other grounds?”

Alexander Panetta, The Canadian Press

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

"We are looking seriously at the spread and determining what our next steps should be," says Alberta’s chief medical officer of health, Dr. Deena Hinshaw, as the daily number of COVID-19 cases continues to climb.
427 new COVID cases is highest in Alberta ever

Central zone has 126 active cases of COVID-19

100 Women Who Care make a donation to Sylvan Lake Food Bank and Bethany Care Centre. Photo By Megan Roth/Sylvan Lake News
100 Women Who Care donate to four Sylvan Lake groups

The Food Bank, Bethany Sylvan Lake, Community Partners and the Library all received a donation

RCMP. (Black Press File Photo)
Calgary man dies in two-vehicle collision near Sylvan Lake

A semi truck collided with a SUV just east of Hwy. 781 on Hwy 11.

Shaelynn Decock and her dog Taco, who has been missing since Aug. 26. Photo Submitted
Sylvan Lake woman looking for closure for her stolen dog

Shaelynn Decock says it has been two months since she last saw her dog Taco

Alberta chief medical officer of health Dr. Deena Hinshaw updates media on the Covid-19 situation in Edmonton on Friday March 20, 2020. nbsp;Alberta is reporting it's highest daily number of COVID-19 cases, with 364 new infections. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson
Alberta confirmed 323 COVID-19 cases Tuesday

Central zone active cases at 145

B.C. Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson, B.C. NDP leader John Horgan and B.C. Greens leader Sonia Furstenau. (Black Press Media)
VIDEO: One day until B.C. voters go to the polls in snap election defined by pandemic

NDP Leader John Horgan’s decision to call an election comes more than a year ahead of schedule and during a pandemic

A Le Chateau retail store is shown in Montreal on Wednesday July 13, 2016. Le Chateau Inc. says it is seeking court protection from creditors under the Companies’ Creditors Arrangement Act to allow it to liquidate its assets and wind down its operations.THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ryan Remiorz
Clothing retailer Le Chateau plans to close its doors, files for CCAA protection

Le Chateau said it intends to remain fully operational as it liquidates its 123 stores

U.S. border officers at the Peace Arch crossing arrested two men on California warrants this week. (File photo)
Ottawa predicts system delays, backlogs unless court extends life of refugee pact

Canada and the United States recognize each other as safe places to seek protection

Conservative member of Parliament Michelle Rempel Garner, left to right, Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole and Conservative Deputy Leader Candice Bergen arrive to hold a press conference in Ottawa on Thursday, Oct. 22, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick
No-confidence showdown over sweeping Tory motion on government handling of pandemic

The Conservative motion is to be put to a vote Monday and has the support of both the Bloc Québécois and NDP

From l-r., first lady Melania Trump, President Donald Trump, moderator Kristen Welker of NBC News, Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden and his wife Jill Biden on stage at the conclusion of the second and final presidential debate Thursday, Oct. 22, 2020, at Belmont University in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
Trump, Biden fight over the raging virus, climate and race

Republican president declared the virus, which killed more than 1,000 Americans on Thursday alone, will “go away.”

JJ Collett Natural Area Foundation held its AGM on Oct. 19 at the Ponoka Legion. (Emily Jaycox/Ponoka News)
De-listing Alberta parks creates ‘risk’ for coal mining: CPAWS

Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society speaks at JJ Collett AGM

COVID-19. (Image courtesy CDC)
Temporary COVID-19 testing sites coming to Wetaskiwin and Ponoka

The Wetaskiwin location will open Oct. 23, 2020 and the Ponoka location will open Oct. 29.

ACC President and CEO Ken Kobly spoke to Ponoka Chamber of Commerce members over Zoom on Oct. 20. (Image: screenshot)
Alberta chambers are ‘411’ to members, government: ACC president

Changes to government supports, second wave and snap election

Smartphone showing various applications to social media services and Google. (Pixabay photo)
National media calling for level playing field with Google, Facebook

In Canada, Google and Facebook control 80 per cent of all online advertising revenues

Most Read